The New Realpolitik

This is something I wrote a couple of weeks ago, before the military intervention:

As the situation in Libya deteriorates, the rest of the world has an ethical obligation to ensure the long-term safety of the country’s many citizens. In the last two weeks there has been a hope; perhaps even an expectation, that Muammar Gaddafi would stand aside of his own accord, as happened with Mubarak and Ben Ali. However, from his recent actions, it’s become clear that he possesses no such intention.

The response of the rest of the world has more or less followed the history books. Western Europe has followed its usual stance – a hard line with the government. They have piled on the sanctions, as well as prompting an investigation into the human rights abuses to Gaddafi. They have even talked briefly about military action.

Russia and China have taken a slightly different tact, taking the position that there should be no interference in domestic affairs. Again, this is the expected approach – both need to avoid antagonising the Western governments they depend upon for trade, but neither can they afford to legitimise military involvement - they are hardly innocent of human rights abuses themselves.

The US is the only power to do something a little different – although I suspect through no innovation of their own. Robert Gates speeches, playing closely to Obama’s line, have tried to maintain the focus on diplomatic action. The focus of the department of defence has been to take the focus away from aggressive force - Obama clearly wants to avoid another Afghanistan before the upcoming election.

Hilary Clinton clearly missed the meeting for that one though. She’s continuing to push herself forward as the hawk of the administration and the Democrat party, obviously hoping to use it to her advantage in next year’s primaries. She has directly contradicted Robert Gates on several occasions, suggesting even that military action could be imminent.

Wherever the US positions itself, there is a reasonable consensus in the international community. To protect both the Libyan people, and the ideals of international justice, Gaddafi must be strong armed, first diplomatically and then, if necessary, militarily. This approach raises a serious issue though. What do we really expect him to do if not wage war? We have shown him only two paths – Civil war, with the spectre of victory on the horizon, or surrender, with a criminal trial and iron bars in the foreground.

We must propose an alternative. As unpalatable as it may seem, a package must be brought to the table that allows Gaddafi to save both himself and his people. Chavez, a man who can hardly be called a saint himself, has taken the first step today in offering to mediate a discussion. From there, Gaddafi can be offered a swift, peaceful handover, followed by an amnesty and exile.

This is the realpolitik of the 21st century. No longer should we be propping up strongmen and tyrants for our own gain – but we must be willing to sacrifice individual cases of justice for the liberty and security of a nation. And for those who band the drum of war, remember this. Whilst we’re offering the carrot, we can still carry the big stick.